Is late frost risk increasing or decreasing under climate change?

Temperate plants have evolved complex mechanisms (interactive effects of winter chilling, spring warming and day length) to attune their leaf unfolding to concurrent weather conditions and avoid frost damage. However, continued rapid climate warming, leading to ever warmer but more unpredictable spring conditions, might jeopardize these ‘safety’ strategies in slowly-evolving plants.


Related publications:

Muffler L., Beierkuhnlein C., Aas G., Jentsch A., Schweiger A.H., Zohner C.M., Kreyling J. 2016. Distribution ranges and spring phenology explain late frost sensitivity of 170 woody plants from the Northern hemisphere. Global Ecology and Biogeography 25, 1061–1071.